I'm just a bystander, but I came across some data that caused me to wonder about the Federal Reserve's seeming insistence that a rise in inflation should be accompanied by a rise in unemployment--ultimately leading to a recession, possibly serious and lasting.
The economists of another country I was talking with seemed to think the unemployment figures could withstand a march in step with inflation increments, (if both rising together then subsequently climbing onto the steps of a recession staircase. According to their theory, inflation figures could significantly increase, month after month, but not necessarily along with a significant increase in unemployment. Hence, no recession follows. I think I'm representing their position.
Nevertheless, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, appears to be following the theory that the two variables are inherently linked. and as if both variables are rising together now. So, his ultimate aim in the steps he's taking now, is to stave off, or to prepare for, a recession. But unemployment figures aren't rising!
Amazing. My observation--not all economists discern the closeness of these two phenomena, even if both together mean a recession, no matter its length.
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