Brookings Institution: Europe in an era of disruption: Where does the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis Go from here?

 The think-tank event occurred online, divided into two panels, on January 21, 2022, 11AM.  The overall question was taken up by Panel 1, moderated by Steven Pifer, Brookings, under a subheading "Why  is the Russia-Ukrainian crisis happening now?"  The Panel included Professors Jeremy Shapiro, Georgetown University, Angela Stent, Stanford, and Pavel Baev, Peace Research Institute, Oslo, Norway.  Panel 2 consisted of Constance Stelzenmuller, moderator, Fiona Hill, James Goldgeier, and Doug Rediker, and the sub-heading of their discussion was "The United States' Role in De-Escalating Tensions."

But the over-arching task of each group, as the panelists seem to proceed, was to determine what on earth was Putin up to?  One analyst would throw out a possibility, e.g., vouchsafing Russian security from NATO, and it would be discussed a bit then dismissed.  About the only plausible explanation to my mind was brought up in the second Panel--having something to do with climate change; and in  particular, what was Russia's posture in addressing it at the COP meetings of the United Nations, particularly, COP26 last November.  

The Russians are indeed concerned over what they should do about climate change, being that their revenues are about 40% drawn from the sale, primarily to EU customers, of carbon-based oil and gas.  Moreover, Putin recently admitted that when the demand for coping with serious issues are before the country it is required of Russians a suitable solution--or, any number of them--so to rectify their financial area of deep concern.  It is interesting that the panicky way President Putin has broached making demands on the West about the Ukrainian regional status is in keeping with the sense of urgency he insists the Western nations of Europe must accept his ultimatums about Ukraine--being in Russia's sphere of influence and must remain free of Western ties, e.g., joining NATO at some juncture.   

All-in-all, I came away with my intuition confirmed by these insightful scholars that Putin has manufactured indeed a Ukrainian crisis, because Russia is looking to itself for internal means to handle the climate problem involving as it does that Russia, too, must acknowledge the scientific fact of climate change; and that Western nations must accept however Russia decides to deal with it so long as it meets the energy-starved needs of the European nations.

Alternative paths, mentioned by the BBC in its reporting on Russian attendance at the November meeting of COP include, but not limited to, developing further its nuclear energy program, e.g., the Rosatom's Prodajem Project for processing spent fuel; use of their forests, which span more acreage than the Amazon, to develop bioecosystem services; mining minerals needed in producing renewable energy; and finding ways to store carbon residues after processing underground.  

But what seems unlikely is that Putin would turn to solar energy as a source--through deploying solar panels and windmills.

Too expensive and would take too long to meet the electric car market off the ground already.