Brookings Institution: Book Review of "Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-Indian Relations" by Madan

The session was held at the Brookings, February 12, 2020: Introduction: Suzanne Maloney, Intrim Vice President, Brookings; Remarks by the author: Tanvi Madem, Brookings; Panelists: Thomas Wright, Brookings, and Kurt Campbell, The Asia Group.

The book traces how US-India relations have proceeded, recognizing that China has had friendly relations with both in trade and in military partnerships through the years since India's independence from Britain.  Both India and China trade a lot together, reaching nearly 50 billion dollars in 2013-14.  India buys military weaponry mostly from Russia, but understands that nuclear proliferation worldwide is not good for the planet.  Its official position is one of nonalignment with any political bloc, maintaining a certain autonomy, free to pursue its own national interests.

Now China has just recently had to adjust its trade with the United States because of Trump's tariffs imposed on Chinese manufactured goods, etc. But up to recently, China was benefiting from its trade agreements with the US--Trump thought by implementing some illegal practices that were not censured significantly through the WTO court system. His administration has been encouraging US companies interested in manufacturing abroad to consider India as a place to invest their overseas specialized equipment and factories.

The point is that the US may regard India in terms of the experiences that China has had with India.  Using the prism of China's perception, India may come to regard the US as an unreliable partner in the long run.

That is to say, what I think India may gain from China's recent turnabout in trade is how unreliable the US is in trade and commerce, particularly with Donald Trump as its President and chief negotiator.

In any case, commenting on India's current stance of nonalignment, Mr. Campbell pointed out that India has successfully maintained a posture of meeting its own needs by taking advantage both of what the West and the Russian communists have to offer in goods and services to India and other nonaligned nations in that region.