Chaos-Phase in the Social Change Sequence

Hegel's Schemata of Thesis-Antithesis-Synthesis 

     The German philosopher F. Hegel posed the schemata of thesis, antithesis, and synthesis which has been used ever since in analyzing social change.  There's the one group--the thesis or "the point"--the conservative how things are done way of proceeding and its counterpoint (arguing for another way to do things--the antithesis; and then there's a consensus, reached perhaps through arbitration, the synthesis.  But before a consensus is reached, there's argumentation and vigorous debate; and there's chaos, each side pulling for its own point of view--thesis pitted against antithesis, so to speak, when neither the side putting forth the thesis, nor the side rising in opposition, is willing to concede to its logical opposition.

     I have termed that phase before the synthesis position is wrought chaos.  Indeed, Hegel did not describe the logic of how from thesis and antithesis a synthesis comes about.  In the real world of social change, I contend its not a logical step that leads from thesis-antithesis to synthesis, such as the conditional relation ("if...then...") or a conjunctive relation ("...and...") or an exclusive (either...or....") but an existential, catastrophic eruption during which a host of options, some of which neither proponents of thesis nor those of antithesis could ever have imagined would arise from the juxtaposition of thesis to antithesis.  A boom! 

     Over the years, I have used Hegel's scheme with the chaos phase as an addendum to account for movements of social change.  And, I make use of the schemata once again to predict the social change in the Middle East that I believe is in progress leading to a synthesis (a societal state I will also describe).


Applying the Thesis-Antithesis-Chaos-Synthesis Analytical Schemata to the Middle-East

     It started many years ago.  Western nations needed the oil of the Middle East.  They had other interests in these lands, too, which could best be served by controlling the entire region.  To make things go their way, these nations, acting in consort, set up puppet governments in lands they wished to control, so that their interests were served. 

     But then came the Arab Spring phenomenon, sweeping across the sand dunes of the Middle East.  This phenomenon was made possible by rallying the local citizenry of the region in opposition to the governments that represented Western interests.  Western influence and attempts to control particular governments in the region were from this vantage point viewed as instances of interference in the rightful exercise of citizen voice in their own affairs.  The West became meddlesome interlopers:  The West must be expunged from the Middle-East; They must go!  Out with them!!

     The country that has most represented the point of view of antithesis against the thesis of Western interference and control in matters of the Middle-East is IRAN!  For decades, this country has fought off efforts to take over its government and dictate policies favorable to the West.  It even captured American soldiers at one point, initiating President Reagan's attempts at the time to get the soldiers back.  Though a pint-sized country, it has nevertheless become a symbol of the antithesis--the insistence that the Middle-East must be held in control by Arabs--that is, by those who live there.  And even to this day, the West wants the Iranian government removed and replaced--replaced by one favorable to the West.

     So, now we are in the chaos-phase of social change in the Middle-East. It is little wonder that the entire movement of antithesis has taken its thrust toward insisting upon its own self-government without outside the area interference from the uniting theme "We're Islamic!"  The radical extremists of ISIS and AlQueda conceive of their Islamic message of unity as stemming from Islamic fundamentalism of the 7th Century!  They want no foreign tinge upon their sacred, home-ground.  It reminds me of much hatred Pol Pot demonstrated in Cambodia for those who succumbed to French, European influence in his country.  These people of the Chaos-phase are loath to continue Western interference in how they conduct their affairs at home.

     Nevertheless, there will come a synthesis.  The Chaos-phase will crumble and dissolve yet a new stage in the social change evolution will emerge. This will come about as the Arab countries assume leadership and control of their own affairs without looking to the West for direction and succour and money.