Be it known: The Taliban who fought off the Russians are familiar with their fighting.

As a resource, the Ukrainians may benefit from what the Taliban know of the fighting behaviors of the Russians.  They had become familiar over the years of conflict in Afghanistan with the Russian methodology.  Just a thought.

My opinion. 

Housekeeping: Using RUMINATIONS III for outflow

 I've started a new ruminations for usual output; oastlerjohn for email input.

Thanks for your support.  I need it. 

To Bring democracy to the world right now!

I've talked to my sponsor about the need to bring democracy to the world, so as not to step back in human development.  Allowing for personal self-expression and individual freedom is a hallmark of democratic governments.

Nevertheless,, it is common knowledge that democracy costs far more than autocracy to implement and to maintain.  I have been assured from my talks with those involved in the world-wide financing of democracy that the funds are available now.  Such organizations and governments that are to be involved in the project of making democracy fit their specific lifestyle and cultural needs should be assured a welcome from my sponsor.  I would encourage each and every group interested in how democracy will bring about future developments in our species to make this significant contact.

    

Why President Putin of Russia is striking now!

Because the former satellites are for their own independence from Russian domination!  Already, Putin got little from Georgia in the way of support for Russian preeminence in '08; Crimea and an ornery East Ukraine from Ukraine in '14; and now in '20 -'21 rumblings of discontent in Russia for elections in Moscow and an inability to control popular opinion over the jailing of Navalny.  But more threatening to Putin's autocracy is the possible uprising of a burgeoning middle class in Belarus, which may prove more difficult for the Russians to put down once united.  Putin needs industrial Belarus.

The point is, the traditional lands for Russian domination are being eroded; put another way, the rise of a middle class is something unheard of in Eastern Europe aside from those countries protected by NATO.  Put yet another way, an autocracy has trouble containing a virulent, youthful middle class.  That is why, autocracies thrive when there's but two social classes: the wealthy and the rest--in poverty, struggling to make a living.  If Ukraine fails to survive independently from Russian control, there'll be others to take up the fight for their own freedom. The list continues to grow--of objectors to Putin and his reign.  The days of the Grand Purge should be over soon, whether or not Putin's reign falls--I contend the indications are already in sight (that amounts to nearly 40 years of knowing Russians enabling me to follow notable events there).

If I were in Ukraine now, I'd run out of there--flee for my life!  The Russians are coming!

My considered opinion.               

Brookings: "State of Black Businesses: Resilience in the Face of a Pandemic" Discussion Panel

On Wednesday, February 16, 2022, 2-3 EST, a Bookings' discussion on the state of black businesses in the US and opportunities for their growth in the future was held online with Andre M. Perry, its presenter, Brookings; Segun Babalola, St. Louis African Chamber of Commerce; Dion Rabouin, Wall Street Journal; Tynesia Boyea-Robinson, CapEq Executive; and Erin Kilmer Neel, Beneficial State Foundation the participants.

It was an upbeat occasion, primarily because several panelists were familiar with the spectacular accomplishments of the government's CDFI--Community Development Financial Institutional Program (came into law in 1994), a major reason for optimism in the redevelopment of black communities and neighborhoods.  Another recent development that's taken hold is that financial institutions, whether banks or investment institutions, are hiring as their fund managers, black bankers and legalists; while corporate is hiring black administrators and members on their boards of directors, more so than heretofore!  One panelist thought the change was abrupt what with the furor over the death of George Floyd: humanitarian agencies around the world have coughed up large funding amounts for black-owned enterprises, beyond the micro-business size.  

The one panelist from a black Chamber of Commerce that has been successful in the St. Louis area said he's been busy, very busy, in putting together loan packages for black entrepreneurs, too.

Evidently, BLACK LIVES MATTER! has had a lasting effect on getting on board the investment global world. 

Not just collateral and reserve capital are the pathways to entrepreuneurial success, but knowledge of the community that the businesses are serving has led to additional means to cement loans and grants for new businesses to open up.

What I observed, too, is how enthusiastic and dedicated the panelists themselves were in talking about the near future of black commerce in America.  The picture looks bright!  Not just in the Southeast US. 

      

   

Brookings: A Chat with Congressman Jamie Raskin

Using a different format of presentation, the Brookings Institution introduced Congressman Raskin of Maryland in A Fireside Chat setting with Dr. Allen, President of Brookings.  Their conversation was followed by a panel discussion of the following analysts: Sarah Binder, panel moderator, Brookings; Fiona Hill, Senior Editor, Lawfare; Quinta Jurecic, Brookings; Rashawn Ray, Brookings; and Molly Reynolds, Brookings.  This online event, entitled "The Future of American Democracy: A Conversation with Congressman Raskin," transpired on Tuesday, February 15, 2022, 10 AM.

The format utilized enabled me to pause and reflect upon the advantages of democracy over autocracy, its major organization of government in opposition today, before the analysts' started probing through with their comments.  The primary value of the democratic method of doing government--and it is a service to the people it claims are its citizenry--is that it passes on to the next administration of government a host of practices and precepts (utilized during its tenure and approved by the people more or less) through a peaceful, law-abiding process of turnover of government.  So, while the administration may radically change in people, the body of methods and procedures in practice are essentially given over to the next administration--there being no grounds for radical civil change in them in the turnover process.  The procedure for changeover in personnel is known as an election.

Now the advantages of democracy is that the change in governmental administrators is peaceful and law-abiding, the method of administering justice, and treatment of its citizenry is by rule of law...etc.  Indeed, there are many over an autocracy, but that is not to say that autocracy has some advantages, too.  But the principal advantage is that it is people-citizen oriented.  The people choose their governmental leaders through the election process.  This is to enable the citizen to pursue his own long-term goals in life--whether they be for economic accumulation of wealth, for community-service, for educating, for improving relationships among groups, etc. as expressions of self-commitment as a societal member; and to recognize his belonging as a citizen to a country on earth!

Of course there is always need for adding more democracy to the government--permitting even greater personal freedom and independence.  For there's a fundamental tension between self-expression of the human being and his self-commitment to country.  Be that as it may, nearly all who reflect upon the two methods of governing admit that democracy permits greater freedom of self-expression within a communal setting.

Indeed, one of the panelists today referred to the philosopher John Dewey, noting that he promulgated the thought that society is forever in need of even greater democracy for his society to grow and develop as a people who accept innovation and promote seeking remedy to the problems it encounters in order for its citizens to live well.

Importantly, however, we must not lose sight of the fact that democracy is institutionally oriented: laws are kept, founded and changed not by the whim of some autocrat but by a body recognized to maintain the principles and legality of the system in one respect or another.  And importantly, it is the laws and the instruments of justice that are passed on to the next generation of governmental administrators.

So, there's advantages to a society and to the person living in it to participate in a democratic form of government.  The real problem with autocracy is hardly ever mentioned, to my way of thinking, however:  in an autocracy, it  is presumed that everybody in it is pursuing one only long-term goal for himself, viz., to live to make more money or anything that money can buy him.  That is patently, false.  Nevertheless, I think most who pursue toward the social "top" of the ladder in an autocracy are obsessed with this one objective and think everybody else is so consumed, too.  A naive opinion.   

All-in-all, the event got me to thinking why democracy is the way to go.  It's just more advanced beyond autocracy, enabling the individual to be himself in a social setting.  Thanks for a fireside chat, Dr. Allen and Congressman Raskin. 

      

        

            

Brookings: The topic:--"Saudi Arabia and Iraq: An Evolving Relationship"

Another bombshell discussion!  The Brookings has outstanding present-day international analysts!  Its discussion on Saudi Arabia and Iraq relations featured Bruce Riedel, Brookings as moderator of a panel that also included Ranj Alaaldin, Brookings; Professor Katherine Harvey, Georgetown University, author of A Self-fulfilling Prophecy: The Saudi Struggle for Iraq; and Ken Pollack, American Enterprise Institute.  It was an online presentation, Wednesday, February 9, 2022, 10-11:15 A.M.

I gathered ideas, which may have been meant, or simply could be reached from the discussion, but they altogether seemed to be worthy of considering a groundwork of policy-formulation in the future in the Middle East--they being qualitatively of superior value, in my estimation.

One being that in order to help Iraq get re-established as a regional power will require a lot of money; and Iraq really isn't interested in closely analyzing who comes up with the anti!  As brought out in the discussion, the Saudis are concerned that any money coming from their nation not be syphoned to Iraq, which could happen because it is known among some circles that whatever money that's Iraqi's could be drawn upon by Iran during this period of grave sanctions against it.  But then certainly, the Saudis have some money that could be "thrown away" in an effort to help a neighboring state that is easily one of the most important states in the Middle East (Mr. Reidel's estimation, I think).  Especially, if by so doing, the Saudis gained from the goodwill they were demonstrating.  The point being, a nation is always taking a risk by reaching out to help another nation, trying to re-establish its regional prominence after a war.

Moreover, some of these analysts pointed out that the image of Saudi Arabia is changing among the Iraqis.  There was no embassy exchange for about 20 years or so until after 2010 or thereabouts.

But another point was stressed by speaker after speaker regarding Iran's influence on Iraq these days. The relationship is close on a one-to-one basis--Iranian and Iraqi.  That is to say, in my way of thinking, they're really tight!  Now for the Saudis and the other Gulf States to make deals, investments, and commitments with Iraq would likely require that one-on-one interpersonal network connection, it seems to me.

Well, I'm glad to report some analysts alluded to their perception that there doesn't seem to be a profound Muslim disagreement between the Shiia and Sunnis in Iraq, so that Muslims of either country may be on good speaking terms with one another, seemingly!     

  

         

Jesus used vision of the mind to know a requirement for world peace.

His mental awareness-idea was that people from all walks of life and all nations must accept one another.  This would mean that the faults and shortcoming must be forgiven--what Jesus offers to the sinner.

His milieu might have suggested aspects of His insight: pax romana of the Roman Empire.  I don't know; but He was very acknowledging of the greatness of Rome--even its coins containing the image of an King or Emperor had economic worth; and He urged their acceptance.

That is why, I believe, the road to revolutions in thought must be understood as presented to mankind via the road of mind to a possible world, as a logician might say.  I have always contended that there are some apriori notions that are useful for the advancement of the species, i.e., be accepted as given truths so as to construct the world; and there are plenty that are not!  Time reveals their worthiness, e.g., we await comprehending Einstein's Theory of Relativity--for which he argues, there are reasons for adaptation, if not acceptance, as ultimate truth about the world.

Maybe that's why Jesus told His disciples, "You'll do even better things than I am doing," (words to this effect, about future 'miracles'). 

 

Analysts agree: Leadership in government of African Countries is sorely lacking!

That's because as US diplomats often complain: the institutions of society aren't yet capable and functioning to produce them!  

I was just at an online presentation of what's lacking in Iraqi society to organize a well-functioning society, including its government.

Ready for this?  An organized citizenry.  They need organizations in the training and profession conduct of trained people--doctors, lawyers, librarians, university professors and trainers in graduate programs, labor groups, but also, labor unions, technological departments; and right away, local community colleges in the major cities.  As my US government says so aptly, "Government is an add-on to its social organization.  You need the professional institutions in place, first.  And in a democracy, the instruments of its establishment are the election ballot box and the votes of the citizens."

First and foremost among institutions is a professional military, independent of any political organization, for security and control purposes; but to also enable individual liberties and self-expression without suppression.  That is in other words, the individual must be able to express himself freely in a free society without fear of reprisal!

Only then can one truly hope governmental leaders will seek justice.  And, clearly about African governments, there's widespread complaint regarding their leaderships' training and professionalism, possibly, because of the colonial relationships, the country may have established with its European sponsor for so long even to this day.

 Or, maybe they're just autocrats, even dictators; and they'll assert control over their military, thankyou!  

       

Christmas may be coming early this year!

A youth in front of the living room chimney has just seen Santa Claus coming down the transom uttering, "God bless us everyone." Behind him fell a present that he had brought!

So you heard this, if you were here (Edward R. Murrow style), "Mind the kid!  Stand up for FREEDOM!"

I get to put on my Professor's Cap! An Explanation: Middle-Class Makes Big Difference in a Society

Up to this Century there were inklings of democratic societies but just inklings--e.g., ancient Greece, which isn't that ancient in terms of the earth's longevity.  Remember, Athens was defeated by Sparta.

The real reason why society has continued to advance this far is because of the rise of the middle-class.  The wealthy can't continue to put forth any Big Lie that its society must buy.  And of course, the fourth estate came along just to help things for a new society that was taking shape with the middle-class its major feature, I contend.

Now, you can see the importance of labor unions to assure the middle-class will have a place carved into the social fabric.  An institutional thereness from generation to generation.  It's the fighting force for equality, which maintains a tension between wealth and the poverty classes.  (In Jesus' time, the poor had a vision of peace that would be in the offing, if the wealthy class could ever be tamed; and old-fashioned slavery virtually eliminated--when the military and police controlled the social setting for the sake of a transitory peace attained through treaty among warring societies.

Next in the offing?  What will come after democracy?  For today, let's just concentrate on the task before the planet: to assure that progress of the race will continue for the good of all inhabitants by making the developing middle class happy--even happier than a basically two-class society--the two groups in this 3-class society of the 22nd Society with its newest addition on the scene.

Currently, Russia has been experiencing in the last 30 years the rise of its middle-class.  Ms. Applebaum, in her recent paper appearing in Atlantic (a must-read piece, December, 2021), accounts how it is responding to  apparent indications of a rising middle-class, that has already been woven into the fabric in the Western World: namely, Russia wants to be left alone to continue its nefarious promulgation of a class society dominated by the rich and powerful over the other citizenry within its sphere of influence.

Hang on!  Here we go! 

This session of didactics is ended.

     

The War in Yemen may be drawing down.

And with it, may the self-serving diplomatic ploy (i.e., doctrine) of "sphere of influence" go into the trash can.

On behalf of the Yemen people, the Houthis have stood the course; and I hope have saved many Yemen children, mothers, and fathers from starvation and death.  The Iranians stood behind them both!  And the US helped end this war, finally.

After 8 years.  Now, to end the blockade.

My opinion.

 

I think it would be a great mistake to restrict trade with China.

I know there's a line of reasoning that we ought not to trade with those who do wrongly to others.  China has a record of harming its citizens upon occasion; and other charges have been made involving justice and freedom issues--for example.

But the point is to keep the lines of communication open, perhaps not to influence the leaders but to gain access to their followers and fellow-citizens in a country ruled by injustice treatment of their citizenry.  I've always been against the Department of State's list of bad nations, for example.  Why?  It cuts off our ability to influence change in countries so labelled.  And, also important, it places higher value on organizations and groups in this country who play the advantage to reap greater remuneration and worth on what they are promoting than such items or ideas may be actually worth.

The idea is to keep communicating and talking and bartering to advantage of all the parties involved.  If a country uses child labor, deal with them to buy goods--but buy only those that they make without the use of child labor, No need to say, "I'll never visit that nation again," or "I'll never buy anything again that they put on the open market, just because I won't buy those items made with child labor."  Rather, teach them why child labor is wrong; and keep buying items they don't make with child labor! 

That's my opinion.  Keep buying from those you know are sometimes in the moral wrong, and expect they'll see the light!   (You might also pray for them!)