Answering this question as Russian troops stand at the border to Ukraine were the participants of this discussion--Rachel Rizzo, Atlantic Council, Benjamin Haddah, Atlantic Council, Kristi Raik, Director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, and Geovanna De Maio, Brookings; and the moderator, Thomas Wright, Director of the Center on the United States and Europe. The event took place online December 8th, 2021, Wednesday, 10 AM.
Because of the timeliness of the topic due to the swarming of Russian troops at the border, the centralized point for discussion was what would be the response of NATO and would this military organization designed to protect the European nations that belong to it with the United States taking the lead differ in any announced fashion from what the individual states belonging to it take as a independent policy decision of theirs to the Russian's pending hostility toward Ukraine.
Frankly, no one seemed inclined to predict what the reaction will be by NATO forces. Several pointed to President Biden's claim that should Russia proceed to invade Ukraine, Russia would incur harsh sanctions, certainly; and noted that the United States is prepared to arm further Ukrainian forces.
Mr. Wright proclaimed, "Events are happening so fast!" But certainly, the United States is already acting in consort with the other several NATO members on the matter.
Why is the Russian President proceeding to act aggressively, endangering the peace of the region? Some discussants pointed to Russia's defense of the Syrian President as precursor to a massive move of stirring chaos in the world. The Ukrainian threat but yet another sign of Russia's stirring up fear of war wherever. Certainly, the discussants discerned Putin's build-up of forces is a deliberate act to shift the balance of power in Europe toward the East.
Several speakers raised the question how US foreign policy will be affected subsequently. It had been shifted to Asia, away from concerns in Europe. Will it somehow be shifted back? Especially, in light of other events occurring regionally in the East--Belarus and Poland squabbling over whether migrants should be allowed into EU territory, for example.
'Basically, the discussants were in agreement that the right of Ukrainians to be independent of Russian domination must be a central political theme to any series of actions the EU countries, severally, and NATO, as its defensive aggregate force, should take.
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My take to the discussion.
The discussion did not broach the seriousness of what Putin has done. To my mind President Putin has boxed his country in a corner in his extending both pipelines to Europe--through to Germany and across the entire length of Ukraine--beyond regions he has control presently. These oil pipelines are not in Russian territory; and they could be shut down easily before any more oil would reach its intended customers in Europe. His reach into Ukraine would grant him control of the pipeline to Europe through the heart of Ukraine, at least.